Mark Begich Elected to Senate

Bears and Ballots can now officially project that Mayor Mark Begich will win re-election over Republican incumbent Ted Stevens. With 100% of the precincts reporting and most of the early and absentee ballots counted, Mark Begich has 132,196 votes to Ted Stevens' 131,382. While there are a few thousand early and absentee votes still to be counted, it is unlikely that Ted Stevens will be able to win a large enough margin of these votes to make up the current deficit.

This victory represents a reaffirmation of what every pre-election poll had found. All polls conducted within four days of the election had Begich up by anywhere from 8 to 22 points. Some (such as myself) cautioned that they were probably inflating Begich's lead, and that this was a closer race than it appeared. These predictions were vindicated; my own prediction looks to be very close to the actual margin of victory.

Additionally, any other projections or posts I may have may in the immediate past that may directly contradict this one are hereby null and void, and we shall never mention them again.

Ted Stevens Re-elected to 7th Term

Bears and Ballots can now officially project that Senator Ted Stevens will win re-election over democratic challenger Mark Begich. With 99% of the precincts reporting, Ted Stevens has 106,351 votes to Mark Begich's 102,998. While there are tens of thousands of early votes and absentee votes still to be counted, it is unlikely that Mark Begich will be able to win a large enough margin of these votes to make up the current deficit.

This victory represents a stunning departure from what every pre-election poll had found. All polls conducted within four days of the election had Begich up by anywhere from 8 to 22 points. While some (such as myself) cautioned that they were probably inflating Begich's lead, and that this was a closer race than it appeared, no of us could have expected what happened last night.

Various factors that played into this shocker, foremost among them the social undesirability of admitting to a pollster that one is voting for a felon, lest one engender sanctimonious, incredulous questions. The truth is that outside of that theory, which has never accounted for a discrepancy this great in the polls (the original social desirability distortion--the Bradley effect--was probably around fewer than 6 points; Stevens over-performed his polling average by nearly 14 points) we really have no concrete ideas of why what happened happened. Begich ran a fairly lazy campaign, and Stevens fought hard for every inch.

In any case, we now turn our gaze to a Senatorial showdown. Will the Senate muster the two-thirds majority needed to expel one of their own members? How many Senators can Stevens and Daniel Inouye (D-HI) sway? How many more Senators owe Stevens favors, or, like Ted Kennedy, are genuine friends with him?

If he is expelled, there will be a runoff election between Mark Begich and, if I had to guess, either Sarah Palin or Lt. Governor Sean Parnell (who performed well in pre-election polls against Ethan Berkowitz in the House race, but lost his primary to Don Young by a few tenths of a percent). We'll have to see how the Republicans determine their nominee--maybe we'll be treated to a primary between the Governor and her Lieutenant?

One for the Road

In fewer than 12 hours, hundreds of thousands of voters all across the state of Alaska will cast their votes for their choice of Senator, Congressman, and President of the United States. More people will cast votes in tomorrow's election than in any other in the history of the United States. It's time for the final predictions.

We've had three post-conviction polls come out in the past four days alone. A quick breakdown:

Rasmussen has Begich leading 52% to 44%, with Bob Bird garnering 3%.

Hays Research Group has Begich up 49% to 42% (with leaners).

Research 2000 has Begich up a stunning 22 points, 58% to 36%.

So, three fairly reliable, recent polls have Begich maintaining an average lead of 12.3%. This lead is probably closer to the high double digits, as the R2000 number is almost certainly an outlier. It's also important to remember that a significant fraction of the electorate cast their votes before Stevens' conviction, and are therefore unlikely to demonstrate such a steep lean towards either candidate. However, it appears that, barring a dead girl/live boy scenario in the next few hours, Mark Begich will follow his late father Nick to Washington and become the first Democratic Alaskan Senator since Mike Gravel.

Final prediction:
Begich 51%
Stevens 45%
Bird/other 4%

Either way, it's been incredibly fun. I'll have some post-election wrap-up posts in the aftermath, of course, but, after all these months, it's likely that the next time we meet we'll know who Alaska's next Senator will be.

Mutually Assured Destruction

This race has heated up over the past few months, leading to a redoubled advertising effort, much of it from out-of-state groups (many of the ads are, as a result, pretty clumsy). The effects of this unprecedented Outside attention are generally unclear, but it appears that Begich may not being helped as much as he's being hindered by the Lower-48 Left's helping hand.

As the DSCC and others pour negative, anti-Stevens advertising into the state and the Senator's own trial hurtles towards its conclusion, Uncle Ted's approval ratings are holding rock steady. Ivan Moore finds that Begich is still in the lead by a single point, 46% to 45%. However, more significantly, Ted Stevens seems to be winning the negative ad-war of attrition:

Stevens' rating has been very stable over the last six weeks, despite both his ongoing trial in Washington DC and being a target of a barrage of negative media funded by the DSCC. If anything, it is Begich's numbers which are deteriorating, with his positive reaching a low of 55% and his negative up over 30% for the first time.

It's relatively well-supported axiom among political scientists that negative ads drive up the negatives of both the candidate they are attacking and the candidate they're perceived as supporting; we have a ready example of this in the current presidential contest, in which an increasingly negative campaign has hurt both Sens. McCain and Obama's favorability ratings. However, it seems that in this race that Stevens may posses a special resistance to negative attacks (40 years of incredibly high-profile service have to be good for something, right?) that Begich may lack. Begich is a fresher face, yes, but he's also more malleable as a result: he has more potential to move upwards or downwards as a result of something like negative advertising. His public image is more sensitive, a factor which unquestionably played a role in John Kerry's 2004 demise.

As such, we have a scenario in which outside groups firebomb the Alaskan political landscape, and, though they are aiming at Stevens, end up burning a more flammable Begich in the end with the firestorm they've created.

New Kos Poll Has Begich Up

A new poll out from Research 2000 for DKos has returned the precipitous lead in this race to Mark Begich. Though well within the margin of error, this 48% to 46% result for Begich gives us an indication that Stevens' brief stint as the leader is more a of a statistical aberration than a candid indicator of the race's direction.

At this point, it's likely that Begich has a tenuous lead. As early and absentee voting kicks off in Alaska, every day that Stevens fails to shrink this lead is another point he needs to make up on election day if he wants to win. It's not hard to envision a scenario in which Stevens is dramatically acquitted just days before November 4th, and subsequently wins amongst people who vote after the ruling, but is unable to overcome the deficit building up right now and narrowly loses the election.

Stevens may have to hope for an even earlier verdict than originally expected.

Stevens Pulls Ahead as Trial Moves into New Phase

The prosecution rests in Senator Stevens' trial today, setting the stage for the next phase, in which Stevens' defense team will make their case as to why the Senator is innocent. However, this juicy second act will only get underway if Justice Sullivan allows it to:

Last week, the judge publicly berated prosecutors after they acknowledged not turning over some information to Stevens' lawyers, saying it was withheld accidentally. On Tuesday, the judge cautioned lawyers not to look far beyond the hearing on the dismissal motion.

"There may not be a defense case," Sullivan said before leaving the courtroom for the day.

Yikes. Incredibly strong language from a justice who's clearly tired of the recurrent mishaps which have plagued an overconfident prosecution's case. If the trial does make to the defense's case, expect Stevens' lawyers to call retired Gen. Colin Powell, Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI), and other prominent Washingtonians to the stand to testify about Stevens' honor and admirable conduct in his 40 years of Senate service. We'll see if these qualitiative appeals can effectively counter the more empirical D.o.J. case.

While we keep our eyes fixed in the legal landscape, the electoral terrain may be shifting beneath our feet. Rasmussen, a reliable pollster (albeit with a mild GOP lean), has Stevens leading Begich for the first time since he was indicted several months ago. While this lead is well within the poll's moderately wide margin of error and can thus be taken as an indication of a tie, not a lead change, this is still a serious reversal of the last available poll numbers, in which Begich seemed to be getting some statistically significant separation. It also indicates that Alaska should really be sampled more, as pollsters and pundits are clearly and consistently missing significant shifts in public opinion and the electoral landscape.

In any case, Stevens seems to be getting some fresh air in both the legal and electoral spheres of his life. Begich--now more than ever--needs to win this race himself; he can no longer rely on the media and legal system to do it for him.

Stevens Hangs Tough as "One of Us"

There are both anecdotal and statistical signals that, as his trial stutters forward, Sen. Stevens may be seeing tangible gains from the One of Us narrative, in which Alaskans react negatively to the perception of a beloved Alaskan being hounded by a corps of Lower-48 media and lawyers.

Empirically, two new polls by Fairleigh Dickinson and Ivan Moore show Stevens trailing by only 4 and 2 points, respectively. Why are we seeing a reversal of the modest trend back to Begich, who held a 6-point lead in the last poll? Stevens seems to be, against the odds, separating himself from a flailing Palin and re-developing his own identity in the race.

The anecdotal evidence sheds some light on this.

In this strange election season, some here are giving odds that "Uncle Ted" will win reelection even if he loses a pedal-to-the-metal gambit to clear his name before voters go to the polls Nov. 4.

"Even if he gets convicted . . . I don't think the people who have voted for him all these years are going to be swayed," said Gary Wilson, a 61-year-old podiatrist who lives a few blocks from the modest A-frame "chalet" that is at the center of the charges against Stevens.

Stevens is "running against a young do-gooder who's never done anything in his life," said George Dailey, who owns the candle shop on the edge of town. Voters, Dailey said, should not forget "everything Ted Stevens has done for the state of Alaska over the last 40 years."

(Side note to fellow Alaskans: how bizarre is it to see Girdwood carefully described in the LA Times?)

Alaskans aren't seeing Stevens as an extension of the GOP machine they've grown considerably less enamored of over the past few months; they're seeing him as Uncle Ted, a man who has fought for their state in Washington nearly as long as it has existed. There's also evidence that Begich has failed to define himself adequately, despite the relative vacuum he's had to work with. This means that there's a significant danger of this race becoming an up-or-down vote on Stevens. Begich must work to avoid this, and present voters with a lucid choice between Stevens and Begich, not a referendum on the Alaskan of the Century; anti-candidates don't beat 40-year incumbents.

New Poll Gives Begich Some Air

A new poll by Maryland-based Research 2000 for the unwaveringly liberal DKos has Begich up 50% to 44%. Despite the DKos connection, we can, generally speaking, trust the accuracy of this poll; it's not politically laced in the same was polls conducted by Hill committees are considered to be. In any case, this is good news for Begich, as it shows that Palin's coattails are thinning in Alaska as her national favorability ratings come back down to Earth from admittedly stratospheric heights. The Begich camp still has to watch the danger that Alaska will be somewhat insulated from Palin's setbacks on the national stage, allowing Stevens to ride her coattails far more effectively than he would be able to otherwise. However, this poll indicates that may not be a significant factor at this point.

Additionally, FiveThirtyEight have updated their Senate projections, which now reflect the tightening of the race that has occurred since the end of August. Before the update, their simulations had Begich winning 88% of the time. Now, they select Begich 75% of the time and Stevens 25% of the time. The Alaskan senate race is also now considered to be the 4th-most competitive in the nation, just behind Minnesota, Oregon, and North Carolina.

New Poll(s) Confirm a Close Race

Two news polls, one reliable and one not, are out. Disparate levels of trustworthiness aside, both indicate the same thing: any daylight that was once between Begich and Stevens has winked out for the time being. Whether this is because Stevens has legitimately pulled level with Begich or if the daylight is simply being obfuscated by clouds from the political storm Palin has generated is yet to be seen.

In any case, the reason this post refers to two new polls as "Poll(s)" is because one was released by Rasmussen and will be taken as seriously as that merits, and one was released by the NSRC, and as such is intrinsically politically laced. Ambiguous plural(s) aside, the NRSC poll has Stevens leading for the first time in a poll of any kind, 46% to 44%. The poll was conducted in the immediate aftermath of Palin's Aug. 29th selection. Rasmussen shows an equally-close race, but a different result, with Begich holding on 48% to 46%.

Additionally, Begich folks can find some residual good news in the favorability ratings of Rasmussen's poll. Begich has a 61% favorability rating to Stevens' 52%. These numbers, largely influenced by the indictment, indicate that some folks may be voting for Sevens even though they have a negative opinion of him. This phenomenon is not uncommon as Alaskans trade what they perceive as fitness to govern in a candidate for pure power and influence in a candidate. 40-year incumbents have the latter in spades, but are not guaranteed to have the former.

Personal note: Vegas was interesting this weekend; Nevada is certainly an entertaining, fractious battleground. In one apartment complex, I met woman who had passed her citizenship test just days beforehand and was unbelievably proud to register to vote; living across the street from her was a man who shouted to me that Obama was a nigger; downstairs from him, a reserved Hispanic father voting for McCain because he felt safer with a military man in office. I have no idea how that state is going to fall, and anyone who tells you they do is lying.

The Palin Effect

As I alluded in my previous post, it's nigh-impossible to discuss Alaskan politics without talking about the state's newborn political megastar, Sarah Palin. Since Palin's selection for Vice President by the McCain campaign, her already immense popularity has swelled both broader and deeper. Broader in that it no longer stretches from Barrow to Juneau, but from Barrow to Florida; deeper in that it seems to have solidified her already formidable support in Alaska in terms of her approval ratings and even the polity's perception of the Republican Party in general. This has, in turn, had an enormous effect on the Begich-Stevens race.

The storyline for the race to date stands as follows:

In sum, an early modest lead for Begich--owed to growing perception amongst Alaskans of Stevens as corrupt and general dissatisfaction with the Republican Party and an unpopular Republican president--exploded into a 20+ point lead for Begich after Stevens' indictment on seven felony counts of failure to properly disclose gifts from VECO, an oil-services company. The race has qualitatively and quantitatively seemed to be solidly in Begich's hands since the indictment. However, Palin's selection seems to be a genuine game-changer (sorry, Newsweek).

Alaska-based pollster Ivan Moore has quantified this coattail effect (which begs the question of whether or not pantsuits have actual coattails). He finds that Begich went from holding a commanding 55.5% to 38.5% lead in a poll conducted August 9-12th to nearly falling within the margin of error by the start of September (remember that Palin was selected Aug. 29). The numbers now stand at Begich 48.9%, Stevens 45.6%. Ivan Moore is regarded as a competent, reliable Alaskan pollster; these numbers aren't statistical noise, but they may be simply a transient bubble. Until we have further evidence, it would be prudent to take these numbers seriously. This means that we can confidently say the race has tightened an incredible amount--we'll have to see how Palin's coattails hold up.