New Poll Gives Begich Some Air

A new poll by Maryland-based Research 2000 for the unwaveringly liberal DKos has Begich up 50% to 44%. Despite the DKos connection, we can, generally speaking, trust the accuracy of this poll; it's not politically laced in the same was polls conducted by Hill committees are considered to be. In any case, this is good news for Begich, as it shows that Palin's coattails are thinning in Alaska as her national favorability ratings come back down to Earth from admittedly stratospheric heights. The Begich camp still has to watch the danger that Alaska will be somewhat insulated from Palin's setbacks on the national stage, allowing Stevens to ride her coattails far more effectively than he would be able to otherwise. However, this poll indicates that may not be a significant factor at this point.

Additionally, FiveThirtyEight have updated their Senate projections, which now reflect the tightening of the race that has occurred since the end of August. Before the update, their simulations had Begich winning 88% of the time. Now, they select Begich 75% of the time and Stevens 25% of the time. The Alaskan senate race is also now considered to be the 4th-most competitive in the nation, just behind Minnesota, Oregon, and North Carolina.