Monday, September 29, 2008

Stevens Hangs Tough as "One of Us"

There are both anecdotal and statistical signals that, as his trial stutters forward, Sen. Stevens may be seeing tangible gains from the One of Us narrative, in which Alaskans react negatively to the perception of a beloved Alaskan being hounded by a corps of Lower-48 media and lawyers.

Empirically, two new polls by Fairleigh Dickinson and Ivan Moore show Stevens trailing by only 4 and 2 points, respectively. Why are we seeing a reversal of the modest trend back to Begich, who held a 6-point lead in the last poll? Stevens seems to be, against the odds, separating himself from a flailing Palin and re-developing his own identity in the race.

The anecdotal evidence sheds some light on this.

In this strange election season, some here are giving odds that "Uncle Ted" will win reelection even if he loses a pedal-to-the-metal gambit to clear his name before voters go to the polls Nov. 4.

"Even if he gets convicted . . . I don't think the people who have voted for him all these years are going to be swayed," said Gary Wilson, a 61-year-old podiatrist who lives a few blocks from the modest A-frame "chalet" that is at the center of the charges against Stevens.

Stevens is "running against a young do-gooder who's never done anything in his life," said George Dailey, who owns the candle shop on the edge of town. Voters, Dailey said, should not forget "everything Ted Stevens has done for the state of Alaska over the last 40 years."

(Side note to fellow Alaskans: how bizarre is it to see Girdwood carefully described in the LA Times?)

Alaskans aren't seeing Stevens as an extension of the GOP machine they've grown considerably less enamored of over the past few months; they're seeing him as Uncle Ted, a man who has fought for their state in Washington nearly as long as it has existed. There's also evidence that Begich has failed to define himself adequately, despite the relative vacuum he's had to work with. This means that there's a significant danger of this race becoming an up-or-down vote on Stevens. Begich must work to avoid this, and present voters with a lucid choice between Stevens and Begich, not a referendum on the Alaskan of the Century; anti-candidates don't beat 40-year incumbents.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Is Party before State Acceptable in Alaska?

More on the continually-evolving story of the erosion of Sarah Palin's support in Alaska, mentioned here last Thursday.

If things keep trending the way they have been, she's not going to be such a boon for the GOP in Alaska after all. It would be a shame if they has to kiss the down-ticket effects for the presidential race, the Begich-Stevens contest, and Young-Berkowitz's race for Congress goodbye.

How unlikely that prospect seemed less than a month ago.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

I'll Try to Find an Endorsement of Stevens and Get Back to You

Some commentators have recently made hay over the admittedly-juicy story that Sarah Palin avoided endorsing Sen. Stevens when she was accosted by reporters in New York recently.



When a reporter asked Palin, Alaska's governor, if she supports the re-election of Stevens, she replied: "Ted Stevens' trial started a couple of days ago. We'll see where that goes."

I know this is counter-intuitive, but I think this isn't a particularly big deal. Palin has been tiptoeing on eggshells lately, particularly in the wake of repeated exposures of gaps in her knowlege by the mainstream media. Her decision to not give a ringing endorsement of an indicted senator to a reporter on the street isn't an unwise one, as many will paint it. It's simply a pragmatic decision by a candidate who can't afford any more missteps.

One thing that's certain is that this is not going to fight her plummeting approval ratings in Alaska; it furthers the growing perception she's putting her campaign for Vice President above Alaska. (Which she is, of course: she'd be insane not to.) This narrative really started gaining traction when Alaskans who asked other Alaskans questions about their own Alaskan governor were given the phone number of McCain's Virginia headquarters.

This incident certainly won't fight the idea that Palin is siding with Outsiders (i.e. McCain et al.) over Alaskans (i.e. Stevens--whatever his other flaws, he is universally recognized as One of Us in Alaska) in order to win the Vice Presidency.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Stevens' Trial Gets Underway

The first federal trial of a sitting US Senator in over 20 years has started this week. If you follow this blog, you probably already know the score: Stevens must win this trial to have a serious shot at keeping his seat in November. If he loses, or the trial is in an ambiguous position come November 4th, the only way he could conceivably survive is if he is somehow able to brilliantly advance the witch-hunt frame I discussed Monday. However, the odds are heavily stacked against that (albeit potent) narrative singlehandedly saving him from the likely electoral ruin a conviction would bring.

The only somewhat-new story here is the impressive prominence of the witness list, which includes everyone from Sen. Ted Kennedy to retired Gen. Colin Powell. No word on who will actually show up and who will pull a Todd Palin/Karl Rove maneuver.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Stevens Wants Alaskans to "Have Faith"

Senator Stevens has, in recent days, advanced a relatively interesting counter-narrative aimed at combating--or at least coloring--coverage of his corruption trial.

The Senator is asking Alaskans to have faith.

"Uncle Ted" is asking Alaska to believe in him.

"Alaskans work on the basis of faith. I have faith in them and they have faith in me," said Stevens, the Senate's longest-serving Republican. "If they have faith in me, this is just another bump in the road."

Though pundits and media who observe from the Lower 48 may not fully appreciate this tactic, it's an extremely smart move by Stevens--perhaps the best of his available options. Alaskans have a tendency to hang together, particularly when a threat or intrusion is perceived as originating from Outside. This effect is magnified when the threat seems to come from "elitists and lawyers" in Washington. By identifying himself as One of Us, Stevens may be able to successfully portray his corruption trial as an anti-Alaskan witch hunt designed to take away our things.

If he can do this, and get Alaskans to believe in him one more time, he may just have given himself a real shot at survival.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

New Poll Gives Begich Some Air

A new poll by Maryland-based Research 2000 for the unwaveringly liberal DKos has Begich up 50% to 44%. Despite the DKos connection, we can, generally speaking, trust the accuracy of this poll; it's not politically laced in the same was polls conducted by Hill committees are considered to be. In any case, this is good news for Begich, as it shows that Palin's coattails are thinning in Alaska as her national favorability ratings come back down to Earth from admittedly stratospheric heights. The Begich camp still has to watch the danger that Alaska will be somewhat insulated from Palin's setbacks on the national stage, allowing Stevens to ride her coattails far more effectively than he would be able to otherwise. However, this poll indicates that may not be a significant factor at this point.

Additionally, FiveThirtyEight have updated their Senate projections, which now reflect the tightening of the race that has occurred since the end of August. Before the update, their simulations had Begich winning 88% of the time. Now, they select Begich 75% of the time and Stevens 25% of the time. The Alaskan senate race is also now considered to be the 4th-most competitive in the nation, just behind Minnesota, Oregon, and North Carolina.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Speaking of Rangel

Rangel is in the Alaskan news again, so soon after being the subject of yesterday's post.

Just thought you should know.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Begich Returns Tainted Contribution from Rangel

The Begich camp has decided to contribute a $10,000 donation from Democratic New York Representative Charles Rangel to charity. This decision comes on the heels of Rangel's deepening scandal over his alleged tax impropriety--there are questions about how accurately he has paid his federal taxes in recent years. Rangel has a long, rich history of scandal, both financial and otherwise, and it's a smart move by Begich to distance himself from the controversial NY Democrat.

It's extremely important for the Begich campaign to successfully divorce themselves from any hint of impropriety in this campaign. While it's always important to avoid distractions such as this, it's absolutely crucial in this campaign because ethics and corruption have become such looming issues in the electorate's mind; it's likely that Stevens would be cruising to a double-digit victory were it not for the alleged corruption uncovered in his office over the past year. If Begich becomes affiliated at any point with any sort of improper behavior, however nebulously, he loses the ability to wield the corruption-busting sledgehammer that has served him so well. That hammer is the thing that has enabled him to break into this race; losing it now would rob him of a vital weapon in the final stretch of this campaign.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Stevens' Sandwich: The Approval is the Meat

This is somewhat breaking, so I'll be snappy and nimble.

Federal Election Commission
(FEC) rules dictate that the ubiquitous "I'm Candidate X and I approve this message" approval clause must come at the beginning or end of televised, campaign-sanctioned ads. A recent ad by Stevens is in clear violation of this rule, as it features Stevens' endorsement in the middle of the ad.

This story is early, so I've no solid indication yet as to whether or not this is just static/minutiae or if it will develop into a significant distractor later in the news cycle. This could easily be used to advance the insofar potent Stevens-as-irreparably-corrupt frame. It's well-known that at this stage, even a pebble (NB: intentions of the author vis-a-vis this pun intentionally left ambiguous) in the wrong place can trip up a runner in a race as close as this.

A direct link to the Democrats' press release is here. Kudos to fellow Alaskan political blogger at I Eat Gravel for hosting.

Monday, September 15, 2008

New Poll(s) Confirm a Close Race

Two news polls, one reliable and one not, are out. Disparate levels of trustworthiness aside, both indicate the same thing: any daylight that was once between Begich and Stevens has winked out for the time being. Whether this is because Stevens has legitimately pulled level with Begich or if the daylight is simply being obfuscated by clouds from the political storm Palin has generated is yet to be seen.

In any case, the reason this post refers to two new polls as "Poll(s)" is because one was released by Rasmussen and will be taken as seriously as that merits, and one was released by the NSRC, and as such is intrinsically politically laced. Ambiguous plural(s) aside, the NRSC poll has Stevens leading for the first time in a poll of any kind, 46% to 44%. The poll was conducted in the immediate aftermath of Palin's Aug. 29th selection. Rasmussen shows an equally-close race, but a different result, with Begich holding on 48% to 46%.

Additionally, Begich folks can find some residual good news in the favorability ratings of Rasmussen's poll. Begich has a 61% favorability rating to Stevens' 52%. These numbers, largely influenced by the indictment, indicate that some folks may be voting for Sevens even though they have a negative opinion of him. This phenomenon is not uncommon as Alaskans trade what they perceive as fitness to govern in a candidate for pure power and influence in a candidate. 40-year incumbents have the latter in spades, but are not guaranteed to have the former.

Personal note: Vegas was interesting this weekend; Nevada is certainly an entertaining, fractious battleground. In one apartment complex, I met woman who had passed her citizenship test just days beforehand and was unbelievably proud to register to vote; living across the street from her was a man who shouted to me that Obama was a nigger; downstairs from him, a reserved Hispanic father voting for McCain because he felt safer with a military man in office. I have no idea how that state is going to fall, and anyone who tells you they do is lying.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Stevens' Corruption Trial Will Proceed

Since the day the federal indictment of Senator Ted Stevens was handed down, his talented, resourceful legal team have been launching counterattacks designed to score a quick dismissal for their client. Yesterday, a significant portion of those counterattacks were rebuffed.

D.C. District Court Justice Emmet Sullivan shot down several of Stevens' legal motions to dismiss the case, including questions about the charges' statute(s) of limitations. He also made strong statements regarding the direction of the case, saying that he intended to give the defendant the pre-election verdict he has publicly requested, and that it is unlikely Stevens' team's other peremptory attempts to dismiss the case will see any more success than the ones put to rest today.

Speaking as a constitutional law student, my opinion is that Stevens' claim that portions of the prosecution's violate the speech or debate clause of the Constitution (designed to protect legislators from arrest or intimidation by the executive branch) stands on speciously-constructed legs. There's no clear indication that the evidence in question is directly pursuant to Stevens' legislative duties. Since the clause's aim is to protect legislators acting in their official capacity, it is doubtful it will apply to the predominantly extra-congressional dealings addressed in the indictment.

There are also polls to be discussed--among other things--but I'll be in Las Vegas for the weekend and may not be able to get to them before I leave.

Until then.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Palin's Bounce?

Really quick:

Palin's selection has already created a a situation unique to this election in which one party's vice presidential nominee is being directly evaluated vis-a-vis the other party's presidential nominee.

Now, it appears that Palin has done--er, is being credited by the mainstream media as having done--something else which falls far outside what we consider to be a VP nominee's traditional sphere of responsibility and influence. Yes, the Republicans' entire post convention bounce is being characterized by many outlets as the Palin Bounce (here, here, ad nasueam). To my knowledge, such an overwhelming amount of the credit for a boost in the polls attributed mostly to the VP candidate alone, combined with the inordinate amount of coverage and legitimacy lent to Palin by the media thus far, are facets unique to this election. It's not uncommon to see an enthusiasm gap between parties, but we aren't used to seeing it between ticket-mates.

Monday, September 8, 2008

The Palin Effect

As I alluded in my previous post, it's nigh-impossible to discuss Alaskan politics without talking about the state's newborn political megastar, Sarah Palin. Since Palin's selection for Vice President by the McCain campaign, her already immense popularity has swelled both broader and deeper. Broader in that it no longer stretches from Barrow to Juneau, but from Barrow to Florida; deeper in that it seems to have solidified her already formidable support in Alaska in terms of her approval ratings and even the polity's perception of the Republican Party in general. This has, in turn, had an enormous effect on the Begich-Stevens race.

The storyline for the race to date stands as follows:

In sum, an early modest lead for Begich--owed to growing perception amongst Alaskans of Stevens as corrupt and general dissatisfaction with the Republican Party and an unpopular Republican president--exploded into a 20+ point lead for Begich after Stevens' indictment on seven felony counts of failure to properly disclose gifts from VECO, an oil-services company. The race has qualitatively and quantitatively seemed to be solidly in Begich's hands since the indictment. However, Palin's selection seems to be a genuine game-changer (sorry, Newsweek).

Alaska-based pollster Ivan Moore has quantified this coattail effect (which begs the question of whether or not pantsuits have actual coattails). He finds that Begich went from holding a commanding 55.5% to 38.5% lead in a poll conducted August 9-12th to nearly falling within the margin of error by the start of September (remember that Palin was selected Aug. 29). The numbers now stand at Begich 48.9%, Stevens 45.6%. Ivan Moore is regarded as a competent, reliable Alaskan pollster; these numbers aren't statistical noise, but they may be simply a transient bubble. Until we have further evidence, it would be prudent to take these numbers seriously. This means that we can confidently say the race has tightened an incredible amount--we'll have to see how Palin's coattails hold up.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Hello, World

This post will serve as a requisite brief introduction.

I am a political science student attending a private college in California. I was born in Alaska, and subsequently lived there for 18 years. I have been involved in Alaskan politics for years, and have met everyone from Tony Knowles to Ted Stevens in the process. This blog will primarily focus on the campaign currently being waged for Ted Stevens' seat in the US Senate. Senator Stevens has held the seat since his initial election in 1968, but faces his most serious electoral challenger in 40 years in democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who was born and raised in the state.

Bears and Ballots will not be narrowly limited to this race, however; I will address the wider context in which the race occurs, and will use the race as an avenue to explore Alaska's fascinating, unique, and criminally misunderstood political climate. I have worked on both the Begich and Stevens campaigns in the last few months, and have met both candidates. I would recommend supplementing the perusal of this blog with the indefatigable blog of Andrew Halcro, one of the better contemporary statesmen Alaska has seen.

And, yes, speaking as an Alaskan political scientist living in California who has suddenly found himself quite a recherché commodity, I am sick of talking about Sarah Palin.