GOP Forms Circular Firing Squad Around Stevens

In a spectacular display of personal abandonment for political reasons, Senator McCain and, even more gracelessly, Governor Palin have thrown Ted Stevens under the bus with such gusto it made some observers wonder how long they'd been waiting to do so. They were joined by a collection of other opportunistic GOP officials who couldn't wait to blast a far more distinguished member of their own party for incremental political gain. It makes one wonder how far in advance they had typed up their statements in anticipation of the day Stevens was convicted.

We can, as an informed electorate, have a genuine discussion over whether or not what Stevens did constitutes a deliberate and malicious misuse of power, or whether the Department of Justice took a big gamble in raiding Stevens' home, didn't find the smoking gun they were hoping for, and settled for some petty charges about not filling out menial Senate forms perfectly. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

However, by using one of their own party as political ballast, Senator Stevens' own colleagues have had this conversation for us. The Alaskan people were, I believe, ready to think hard about what's happened so far this historic election cycle, take this verdict into account, and make an informed decision. However, this delicate cognitive process was bowled over by a comically-amalgamated ball of clowns tripping over each other to denounce and demonize Stevens. Note that the loudest of the Pecksniffian weather vanes are, from Coleman to McCain, losing their respective races, or, in the case of Palin, watching their favorability ratings plummet towards Earth faster than Alaska's oil revenues. Someone should let the Governor know that Ted Stevens will not be her springboard back to legitimacy, and, while we're at it, neither will continually blasting a campaign she did more to ruin than anyone else. I can smell the desperate, manufactured sanctimony from Los Angeles, and it makes me sick.

Would Stevens have lost anyway? Probably. But that decision was Alaska's to make; it was never supposed to lie in the hands of an assemblage of overheated fools standing on each others' shoulders, grasping in vain for power and respect they will never have, but Ted Stevens has for forty years.

Is Party before State Acceptable in Alaska?

More on the continually-evolving story of the erosion of Sarah Palin's support in Alaska, mentioned here last Thursday.

If things keep trending the way they have been, she's not going to be such a boon for the GOP in Alaska after all. It would be a shame if they has to kiss the down-ticket effects for the presidential race, the Begich-Stevens contest, and Young-Berkowitz's race for Congress goodbye.

How unlikely that prospect seemed less than a month ago.

I'll Try to Find an Endorsement of Stevens and Get Back to You

Some commentators have recently made hay over the admittedly-juicy story that Sarah Palin avoided endorsing Sen. Stevens when she was accosted by reporters in New York recently.

When a reporter asked Palin, Alaska's governor, if she supports the re-election of Stevens, she replied: "Ted Stevens' trial started a couple of days ago. We'll see where that goes."

I know this is counter-intuitive, but I think this isn't a particularly big deal. Palin has been tiptoeing on eggshells lately, particularly in the wake of repeated exposures of gaps in her knowlege by the mainstream media. Her decision to not give a ringing endorsement of an indicted senator to a reporter on the street isn't an unwise one, as many will paint it. It's simply a pragmatic decision by a candidate who can't afford any more missteps.

One thing that's certain is that this is not going to fight her plummeting approval ratings in Alaska; it furthers the growing perception she's putting her campaign for Vice President above Alaska. (Which she is, of course: she'd be insane not to.) This narrative really started gaining traction when Alaskans who asked other Alaskans questions about their own Alaskan governor were given the phone number of McCain's Virginia headquarters.

This incident certainly won't fight the idea that Palin is siding with Outsiders (i.e. McCain et al.) over Alaskans (i.e. Stevens--whatever his other flaws, he is universally recognized as One of Us in Alaska) in order to win the Vice Presidency.

Stevens' Trial Gets Underway

The first federal trial of a sitting US Senator in over 20 years has started this week. If you follow this blog, you probably already know the score: Stevens must win this trial to have a serious shot at keeping his seat in November. If he loses, or the trial is in an ambiguous position come November 4th, the only way he could conceivably survive is if he is somehow able to brilliantly advance the witch-hunt frame I discussed Monday. However, the odds are heavily stacked against that (albeit potent) narrative singlehandedly saving him from the likely electoral ruin a conviction would bring.

The only somewhat-new story here is the impressive prominence of the witness list, which includes everyone from Sen. Ted Kennedy to retired Gen. Colin Powell. No word on who will actually show up and who will pull a Todd Palin/Karl Rove maneuver.

New Poll Gives Begich Some Air

A new poll by Maryland-based Research 2000 for the unwaveringly liberal DKos has Begich up 50% to 44%. Despite the DKos connection, we can, generally speaking, trust the accuracy of this poll; it's not politically laced in the same was polls conducted by Hill committees are considered to be. In any case, this is good news for Begich, as it shows that Palin's coattails are thinning in Alaska as her national favorability ratings come back down to Earth from admittedly stratospheric heights. The Begich camp still has to watch the danger that Alaska will be somewhat insulated from Palin's setbacks on the national stage, allowing Stevens to ride her coattails far more effectively than he would be able to otherwise. However, this poll indicates that may not be a significant factor at this point.

Additionally, FiveThirtyEight have updated their Senate projections, which now reflect the tightening of the race that has occurred since the end of August. Before the update, their simulations had Begich winning 88% of the time. Now, they select Begich 75% of the time and Stevens 25% of the time. The Alaskan senate race is also now considered to be the 4th-most competitive in the nation, just behind Minnesota, Oregon, and North Carolina.

Palin's Bounce?

Really quick:

Palin's selection has already created a a situation unique to this election in which one party's vice presidential nominee is being directly evaluated vis-a-vis the other party's presidential nominee.

Now, it appears that Palin has done--er, is being credited by the mainstream media as having done--something else which falls far outside what we consider to be a VP nominee's traditional sphere of responsibility and influence. Yes, the Republicans' entire post convention bounce is being characterized by many outlets as the Palin Bounce (here, here, ad nasueam). To my knowledge, such an overwhelming amount of the credit for a boost in the polls attributed mostly to the VP candidate alone, combined with the inordinate amount of coverage and legitimacy lent to Palin by the media thus far, are facets unique to this election. It's not uncommon to see an enthusiasm gap between parties, but we aren't used to seeing it between ticket-mates.

The Palin Effect

As I alluded in my previous post, it's nigh-impossible to discuss Alaskan politics without talking about the state's newborn political megastar, Sarah Palin. Since Palin's selection for Vice President by the McCain campaign, her already immense popularity has swelled both broader and deeper. Broader in that it no longer stretches from Barrow to Juneau, but from Barrow to Florida; deeper in that it seems to have solidified her already formidable support in Alaska in terms of her approval ratings and even the polity's perception of the Republican Party in general. This has, in turn, had an enormous effect on the Begich-Stevens race.

The storyline for the race to date stands as follows:

In sum, an early modest lead for Begich--owed to growing perception amongst Alaskans of Stevens as corrupt and general dissatisfaction with the Republican Party and an unpopular Republican president--exploded into a 20+ point lead for Begich after Stevens' indictment on seven felony counts of failure to properly disclose gifts from VECO, an oil-services company. The race has qualitatively and quantitatively seemed to be solidly in Begich's hands since the indictment. However, Palin's selection seems to be a genuine game-changer (sorry, Newsweek).

Alaska-based pollster Ivan Moore has quantified this coattail effect (which begs the question of whether or not pantsuits have actual coattails). He finds that Begich went from holding a commanding 55.5% to 38.5% lead in a poll conducted August 9-12th to nearly falling within the margin of error by the start of September (remember that Palin was selected Aug. 29). The numbers now stand at Begich 48.9%, Stevens 45.6%. Ivan Moore is regarded as a competent, reliable Alaskan pollster; these numbers aren't statistical noise, but they may be simply a transient bubble. Until we have further evidence, it would be prudent to take these numbers seriously. This means that we can confidently say the race has tightened an incredible amount--we'll have to see how Palin's coattails hold up.

Hello, World

This post will serve as a requisite brief introduction.

I am a political science student attending a private college in California. I was born in Alaska, and subsequently lived there for 18 years. I have been involved in Alaskan politics for years, and have met everyone from Tony Knowles to Ted Stevens in the process. This blog will primarily focus on the campaign currently being waged for Ted Stevens' seat in the US Senate. Senator Stevens has held the seat since his initial election in 1968, but faces his most serious electoral challenger in 40 years in democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who was born and raised in the state.

Bears and Ballots will not be narrowly limited to this race, however; I will address the wider context in which the race occurs, and will use the race as an avenue to explore Alaska's fascinating, unique, and criminally misunderstood political climate. I have worked on both the Begich and Stevens campaigns in the last few months, and have met both candidates. I would recommend supplementing the perusal of this blog with the indefatigable blog of Andrew Halcro, one of the better contemporary statesmen Alaska has seen.

And, yes, speaking as an Alaskan political scientist living in California who has suddenly found himself quite a recherché commodity, I am sick of talking about Sarah Palin.