Mark Begich Elected to Senate

Bears and Ballots can now officially project that Mayor Mark Begich will win re-election over Republican incumbent Ted Stevens. With 100% of the precincts reporting and most of the early and absentee ballots counted, Mark Begich has 132,196 votes to Ted Stevens' 131,382. While there are a few thousand early and absentee votes still to be counted, it is unlikely that Ted Stevens will be able to win a large enough margin of these votes to make up the current deficit.

This victory represents a reaffirmation of what every pre-election poll had found. All polls conducted within four days of the election had Begich up by anywhere from 8 to 22 points. Some (such as myself) cautioned that they were probably inflating Begich's lead, and that this was a closer race than it appeared. These predictions were vindicated; my own prediction looks to be very close to the actual margin of victory.

Additionally, any other projections or posts I may have may in the immediate past that may directly contradict this one are hereby null and void, and we shall never mention them again.

Ted Stevens Re-elected to 7th Term

Bears and Ballots can now officially project that Senator Ted Stevens will win re-election over democratic challenger Mark Begich. With 99% of the precincts reporting, Ted Stevens has 106,351 votes to Mark Begich's 102,998. While there are tens of thousands of early votes and absentee votes still to be counted, it is unlikely that Mark Begich will be able to win a large enough margin of these votes to make up the current deficit.

This victory represents a stunning departure from what every pre-election poll had found. All polls conducted within four days of the election had Begich up by anywhere from 8 to 22 points. While some (such as myself) cautioned that they were probably inflating Begich's lead, and that this was a closer race than it appeared, no of us could have expected what happened last night.

Various factors that played into this shocker, foremost among them the social undesirability of admitting to a pollster that one is voting for a felon, lest one engender sanctimonious, incredulous questions. The truth is that outside of that theory, which has never accounted for a discrepancy this great in the polls (the original social desirability distortion--the Bradley effect--was probably around fewer than 6 points; Stevens over-performed his polling average by nearly 14 points) we really have no concrete ideas of why what happened happened. Begich ran a fairly lazy campaign, and Stevens fought hard for every inch.

In any case, we now turn our gaze to a Senatorial showdown. Will the Senate muster the two-thirds majority needed to expel one of their own members? How many Senators can Stevens and Daniel Inouye (D-HI) sway? How many more Senators owe Stevens favors, or, like Ted Kennedy, are genuine friends with him?

If he is expelled, there will be a runoff election between Mark Begich and, if I had to guess, either Sarah Palin or Lt. Governor Sean Parnell (who performed well in pre-election polls against Ethan Berkowitz in the House race, but lost his primary to Don Young by a few tenths of a percent). We'll have to see how the Republicans determine their nominee--maybe we'll be treated to a primary between the Governor and her Lieutenant?

SHOCK: Stevens Leads by 5,000 With 37% Reporting

Results are frustratingly slow in coming from Alaska tonight, but as of right now, with over a third of the precincts reporting, Ted Stevens in leading Mark Begich 54,101 votes to 49,741 votes. I've made contact with multiple sources on the ground in Alaska, and they told me before the polls even closed that they had a gut feeling that Stevens' chances were very real tonight. Begich has to hope that the more liberal, urban precincts in Anchorage, Fairbanks, and the Southeast are taking longer to count and report their totals than the more rural, conservative areas like the Kenai Peninsula. Right now there's also a significant gender gap, with female voters breaking 61-35 for Begich, and male voters giving Stevens the 51-44 nod.

I'll keep you posted.

UPDATE 1:

Stevens has maintained his lead with 45% of the precincts reporting, though Begich has narrow it slightly, down to about 4,400 votes. This tightening is insignificant, however, as we approach the halfway mark of the state's reporting. Begich has to start making up ground quickly or we're going to see one of the biggest discrepancies between pre-election polls and the actual results in the history of American elections. It's not often a candidate ahead by 22 points just days before an election ends up losing.

UPDATE 2:

Two-thirds of the precincts are in. Stevens still leads by about 3,000 votes, with 48% of the vote to Begich's 47%. While we watch these results come in, it's important to bear in mind that if Stevens does win, it's a near-certainty he will be expelled from the Senate by a two-thirds vote of his colleagues.

UPDATE 3:

As the latest numbers come in, we can definitively say that Ted Stevens is now the electoral favorite in this race. With 72% of the precincts reporting, he has expanded his lead to about 4,600 votes, a 49% to 46% lead over an undoubtedly stunned Begich.

UPDATE 4:

It's now a little past midnight in the land of the midnight sun, and the sun is setting on Begich's chances. While there are still 14,000 early votes to be counted, it appears that Ted Stevens may have inexplicably procured victory from God knows where. With 81% reporting, he leads by a count of 95,352 to 91,368. It will take a fairly unlikely combination of drastically late-reporting blue areas and a huge advantage in early votes for Begich to pull this out.

UPDATE 5:

It is now one in the morning in Alaska. 96% of the precincts are reporting.

Senator Ted Stevens: 104,564
Mayor Mark Begich: 100,968