Monday, November 3, 2008

One for the Road

In fewer than 12 hours, hundreds of thousands of voters all across the state of Alaska will cast their votes for their choice of Senator, Congressman, and President of the United States. More people will cast votes in tomorrow's election than in any other in the history of the United States. It's time for the final predictions.

We've had three post-conviction polls come out in the past four days alone. A quick breakdown:

Rasmussen has Begich leading 52% to 44%, with Bob Bird garnering 3%.

Hays Research Group has Begich up 49% to 42% (with leaners).

Research 2000 has Begich up a stunning 22 points, 58% to 36%.

So, three fairly reliable, recent polls have Begich maintaining an average lead of 12.3%. This lead is probably closer to the high double digits, as the R2000 number is almost certainly an outlier. It's also important to remember that a significant fraction of the electorate cast their votes before Stevens' conviction, and are therefore unlikely to demonstrate such a steep lean towards either candidate. However, it appears that, barring a dead girl/live boy scenario in the next few hours, Mark Begich will follow his late father Nick to Washington and become the first Democratic Alaskan Senator since Mike Gravel.

Final prediction:
Begich 51%
Stevens 45%
Bird/other 4%

Either way, it's been incredibly fun. I'll have some post-election wrap-up posts in the aftermath, of course, but, after all these months, it's likely that the next time we meet we'll know who Alaska's next Senator will be.

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