SHOCK: Stevens Leads by 5,000 With 37% Reporting

Results are frustratingly slow in coming from Alaska tonight, but as of right now, with over a third of the precincts reporting, Ted Stevens in leading Mark Begich 54,101 votes to 49,741 votes. I've made contact with multiple sources on the ground in Alaska, and they told me before the polls even closed that they had a gut feeling that Stevens' chances were very real tonight. Begich has to hope that the more liberal, urban precincts in Anchorage, Fairbanks, and the Southeast are taking longer to count and report their totals than the more rural, conservative areas like the Kenai Peninsula. Right now there's also a significant gender gap, with female voters breaking 61-35 for Begich, and male voters giving Stevens the 51-44 nod.

I'll keep you posted.

UPDATE 1:

Stevens has maintained his lead with 45% of the precincts reporting, though Begich has narrow it slightly, down to about 4,400 votes. This tightening is insignificant, however, as we approach the halfway mark of the state's reporting. Begich has to start making up ground quickly or we're going to see one of the biggest discrepancies between pre-election polls and the actual results in the history of American elections. It's not often a candidate ahead by 22 points just days before an election ends up losing.

UPDATE 2:

Two-thirds of the precincts are in. Stevens still leads by about 3,000 votes, with 48% of the vote to Begich's 47%. While we watch these results come in, it's important to bear in mind that if Stevens does win, it's a near-certainty he will be expelled from the Senate by a two-thirds vote of his colleagues.

UPDATE 3:

As the latest numbers come in, we can definitively say that Ted Stevens is now the electoral favorite in this race. With 72% of the precincts reporting, he has expanded his lead to about 4,600 votes, a 49% to 46% lead over an undoubtedly stunned Begich.

UPDATE 4:

It's now a little past midnight in the land of the midnight sun, and the sun is setting on Begich's chances. While there are still 14,000 early votes to be counted, it appears that Ted Stevens may have inexplicably procured victory from God knows where. With 81% reporting, he leads by a count of 95,352 to 91,368. It will take a fairly unlikely combination of drastically late-reporting blue areas and a huge advantage in early votes for Begich to pull this out.

UPDATE 5:

It is now one in the morning in Alaska. 96% of the precincts are reporting.

Senator Ted Stevens: 104,564
Mayor Mark Begich: 100,968