Bears and Ballots can now officially project that Mayor Mark Begich will win re-election over Republican incumbent Ted Stevens. With 100% of the precincts reporting and most of the early and absentee ballots counted, Mark Begich has 132,196 votes to Ted Stevens' 131,382. While there are a few thousand early and absentee votes still to be counted, it is unlikely that Ted Stevens will be able to win a large enough margin of these votes to make up the current deficit.
This victory represents a reaffirmation of what every pre-election poll had found. All polls conducted within four days of the election had Begich up by anywhere from 8 to 22 points. Some (such as myself) cautioned that they were probably inflating Begich's lead, and that this was a closer race than it appeared. These predictions were vindicated; my own prediction looks to be very close to the actual margin of victory.
Additionally, any other projections or posts I may have may in the immediate past that may directly contradict this one are hereby null and void, and we shall never mention them again.
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