Stevens Pulls Ahead as Trial Moves into New Phase

The prosecution rests in Senator Stevens' trial today, setting the stage for the next phase, in which Stevens' defense team will make their case as to why the Senator is innocent. However, this juicy second act will only get underway if Justice Sullivan allows it to:

Last week, the judge publicly berated prosecutors after they acknowledged not turning over some information to Stevens' lawyers, saying it was withheld accidentally. On Tuesday, the judge cautioned lawyers not to look far beyond the hearing on the dismissal motion.

"There may not be a defense case," Sullivan said before leaving the courtroom for the day.

Yikes. Incredibly strong language from a justice who's clearly tired of the recurrent mishaps which have plagued an overconfident prosecution's case. If the trial does make to the defense's case, expect Stevens' lawyers to call retired Gen. Colin Powell, Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI), and other prominent Washingtonians to the stand to testify about Stevens' honor and admirable conduct in his 40 years of Senate service. We'll see if these qualitiative appeals can effectively counter the more empirical D.o.J. case.

While we keep our eyes fixed in the legal landscape, the electoral terrain may be shifting beneath our feet. Rasmussen, a reliable pollster (albeit with a mild GOP lean), has Stevens leading Begich for the first time since he was indicted several months ago. While this lead is well within the poll's moderately wide margin of error and can thus be taken as an indication of a tie, not a lead change, this is still a serious reversal of the last available poll numbers, in which Begich seemed to be getting some statistically significant separation. It also indicates that Alaska should really be sampled more, as pollsters and pundits are clearly and consistently missing significant shifts in public opinion and the electoral landscape.

In any case, Stevens seems to be getting some fresh air in both the legal and electoral spheres of his life. Begich--now more than ever--needs to win this race himself; he can no longer rely on the media and legal system to do it for him.