Mutually Assured Destruction

This race has heated up over the past few months, leading to a redoubled advertising effort, much of it from out-of-state groups (many of the ads are, as a result, pretty clumsy). The effects of this unprecedented Outside attention are generally unclear, but it appears that Begich may not being helped as much as he's being hindered by the Lower-48 Left's helping hand.

As the DSCC and others pour negative, anti-Stevens advertising into the state and the Senator's own trial hurtles towards its conclusion, Uncle Ted's approval ratings are holding rock steady. Ivan Moore finds that Begich is still in the lead by a single point, 46% to 45%. However, more significantly, Ted Stevens seems to be winning the negative ad-war of attrition:

Stevens' rating has been very stable over the last six weeks, despite both his ongoing trial in Washington DC and being a target of a barrage of negative media funded by the DSCC. If anything, it is Begich's numbers which are deteriorating, with his positive reaching a low of 55% and his negative up over 30% for the first time.

It's relatively well-supported axiom among political scientists that negative ads drive up the negatives of both the candidate they are attacking and the candidate they're perceived as supporting; we have a ready example of this in the current presidential contest, in which an increasingly negative campaign has hurt both Sens. McCain and Obama's favorability ratings. However, it seems that in this race that Stevens may posses a special resistance to negative attacks (40 years of incredibly high-profile service have to be good for something, right?) that Begich may lack. Begich is a fresher face, yes, but he's also more malleable as a result: he has more potential to move upwards or downwards as a result of something like negative advertising. His public image is more sensitive, a factor which unquestionably played a role in John Kerry's 2004 demise.

As such, we have a scenario in which outside groups firebomb the Alaskan political landscape, and, though they are aiming at Stevens, end up burning a more flammable Begich in the end with the firestorm they've created.