New Kos Poll Has Begich Up

A new poll out from Research 2000 for DKos has returned the precipitous lead in this race to Mark Begich. Though well within the margin of error, this 48% to 46% result for Begich gives us an indication that Stevens' brief stint as the leader is more a of a statistical aberration than a candid indicator of the race's direction.

At this point, it's likely that Begich has a tenuous lead. As early and absentee voting kicks off in Alaska, every day that Stevens fails to shrink this lead is another point he needs to make up on election day if he wants to win. It's not hard to envision a scenario in which Stevens is dramatically acquitted just days before November 4th, and subsequently wins amongst people who vote after the ruling, but is unable to overcome the deficit building up right now and narrowly loses the election.

Stevens may have to hope for an even earlier verdict than originally expected.