Two news polls, one reliable and one not, are out. Disparate levels of trustworthiness aside, both indicate the same thing: any daylight that was once between Begich and Stevens has winked out for the time being. Whether this is because Stevens has legitimately pulled level with Begich or if the daylight is simply being obfuscated by clouds from the political storm Palin has generated is yet to be seen.
In any case, the reason this post refers to two new polls as "Poll(s)" is because one was released by Rasmussen and will be taken as seriously as that merits, and one was released by the NSRC, and as such is intrinsically politically laced. Ambiguous plural(s) aside, the NRSC poll has Stevens leading for the first time in a poll of any kind, 46% to 44%. The poll was conducted in the immediate aftermath of Palin's Aug. 29th selection. Rasmussen shows an equally-close race, but a different result, with Begich holding on 48% to 46%.
Additionally, Begich folks can find some residual good news in the favorability ratings of Rasmussen's poll. Begich has a 61% favorability rating to Stevens' 52%. These numbers, largely influenced by the indictment, indicate that some folks may be voting for Sevens even though they have a negative opinion of him. This phenomenon is not uncommon as Alaskans trade what they perceive as fitness to govern in a candidate for pure power and influence in a candidate. 40-year incumbents have the latter in spades, but are not guaranteed to have the former.
Personal note: Vegas was interesting this weekend; Nevada is certainly an entertaining, fractious battleground. In one apartment complex, I met woman who had passed her citizenship test just days beforehand and was unbelievably proud to register to vote; living across the street from her was a man who shouted to me that Obama was a nigger; downstairs from him, a reserved Hispanic father voting for McCain because he felt safer with a military man in office. I have no idea how that state is going to fall, and anyone who tells you they do is lying.
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I've always found it interesting that these hill committee polls don't shed more favorable light upon their own candidates. I looked at the various shady elements of a similar NSRC poll released recently on the Udall/Schaffer race that I am covering over at udallschaffer.blogspot.com, and despite all the indications that the poll was less than legitimate, it still found that Udall was leading by 1 percentage point.
It makes me wonder if in fact these hill committee polls are either:
A. just unscientific, but not fixed (contrary to my gut instinct), or
B. they are fixed to portray a closer race than there really is on the ground, but one that still maintains the Democrats' slight lead thus creating a sense of urgency that might hopefully increase base mobilization.
It would be an interesting trade off in that it would involve forfeiting perceived momentum. Of course this is all speculation.
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